Extreme Chase Tours

TORNADOES ON MONDAY!

2010-05-09T19:02:00.003-05:00

Well, looks like it's May in the plains. A nice trough, rich gulf moisture, and a dry line. Things are coming together for a rather nasty outbreak tomorrow. Maps and forecasts are posted so I won't go there, but I will say that ECT will be out there with a full tour and media, and be sure to keep up to date with the latest updates via TV and radio!!

We will be streaming on chasertv.com....

Major tornado outbreak today!!

2010-05-01T13:29:00.005-05:00

Images courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center Norman Oklahoma

Models continue to indicate another tornado outbreak for parts of Arkansas, Tennesee, and Mississippi today into tonight. Destructive long track tornadoes are a real threat in these areas. I ask all who read this to please maintain a heightened awareness today. Keep your weather radios and televisions on and be ready to take cover. Do not even try to chase this event--veteran chasers have described the Yazoo City tornado from last Saturday as a "black mass of clouds", and a "rolling black fog" not to mention that these tornadoes will likely be rain-wrapped so you may not know what is coming at you. Also radar data may fail as it did last Saturday so keep an eye on your radar data.

Prayers are going out from us here at Extreme Chase Tours for the folks affected by last nights tornadoes.

Tornado time lapse

2010-04-23T09:12:00.003-05:00

Here is a time lapse of one of many tornadoes near Jericho, Texas that Extreme Chase tours intercepted!! Awesome day!

6 TORNADOES!!!!!!!!!

2010-04-22T19:42:00.002-05:00

Extreme Chase Tours bagged 6 tornadoes today near Allanreed Texas. Were on the way back right to stage for tomorrows setup....pics and vids lateer.

Jeff Smith

Storms Monday March 8th?

2010-03-05T08:46:00.002-06:00

Here is a shot that I took this morning after shooting the sunrise. Pretty cool shot if I may say so myself!
Looking at the possibility of a cold core setup on Monday here in Oklahoma. Lanny or David will probably have more on that as we get closer to the "event".

Tours are booking fast--make sure you get in on the adventure of a lifetime!! www.extremechasetours.com

Have a great weekend!
Jeff

Benign weather--kind of...

2010-02-16T14:03:00.003-06:00

Well, this El-Nino pattern has sure kept us busy this winter. Multiple winter storms with snow/sleet/ice have been the news as of late and looking at long range models, we may be in for another winter storm here in Oklahoma late next week. The good thing about this is that storm season is inching ever-so-slowly closer and the moisture in the ground should serve to help our early-season severe weather pattern.

Our tours are booking fast so now is the time to book! You wouldn't want to wait until storm season is in full force to book and risk not getting a seat on the best tour company that there is!! Hurry! Book today!!!!

Snow tomorrow

2010-02-07T19:19:00.005-06:00

This is a blog I did for Oklahoma Internet Weather Center. I was going to say essentially the same thing here as below. - David

I wanted to do an update on the upcoming winter storm. Let's begin by summarizing the advisories in effect for right now. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for Northern Oklahoma until 6am tomorrow morning. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Central and Southwest Oklahoma for Monday morning and afternoon.

This is an upper air chart from this morning.

The main upper level system is over Southern California, Southern Nevada, and Western Arizona. I think this system might intensify a little more as it makes it further to the east.

As far as amounts go, as I suspected last night, I'm going to have to lower amounts. I am going with 1-3 inches across much of the state, but Northwest Oklahoma could see a bit more (I'd say 3-5 based on the forecast thermodynamic profiles).

The good news is that most of the precipitation will be in the form of snow. There could be some freezing rain, especially in Northern Oklahoma, but it doesn't look to be much.

David Moran

SNOW IN TULSA!!

2010-01-29T11:26:00.004-06:00

Tulsa is now experiencing moderate snowfall. It has quickly covered the ground and streets. I will be streaming on ChaserTV shortly after noon!!

2010-01-28T14:28:00.003-06:00

This is courtesy of the Oklahoma Mesonet. The missing data points most likely refer to Mesonet stations that are frozen. Major power outages reported in soutwestern Oklahoma--power poles broken is the report! Sounds very bad at this point. More freezing rain is headed for the area as well.

Here is a link for Oklahoma road conditions. Looks like the ice & snow is impacting travel as well. PLease be careful if you are out!!

ICE STORM UPDATE!!

2010-01-28T11:14:00.006-06:00

...Radar image courtesy of National Weather Service...

The ice storm of 2010 is underway. Major power outages and treacherous travel conditions will be the story later today and tonight. THIS STORM WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS!! I have already seen reports of power outages in SW Oklahoma and numerous accidents along I-40 in the western part of the state. I sure hope everyone is stocked up on supplies.

One good bit of info is that the sounding profiles are looking more supportive of a little less freezing rain and more sleet. Sleet is definitely the lesser of the two evils because sleet will not affect the power grids near as much. Yes, sleet is our friend today...

On a lighter note, I just unpacked a new shipment of Extreme Chase Tours T-shirts from K&k Kustom Designs! They are pretty cool! Contact me if you would like to order one!!

Be safe,
Jeff

ICE STORM EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE!!

2010-01-27T13:34:00.003-06:00

Graphic courtesy of NWS Tulsa. Models continue to show a slower, more northerly track. IF this verifies, that would put Tulsa under the gun for another historic ice storm!! Sperry-Piltx index of 4 to 5 through the Tulsa area. Please make preparations today...

Models are showing that temps at the surface will be below 32F while there will be a warm layer aloft that will in turn make rain instead of snow. That's the short version.

If you live in Oklahoma, be sure to stay tuned to media!!!
It's coming!!!
Jeff

Get ready folks!!

2010-01-27T09:00:00.005-06:00

Ok, here is one of the factors of this impending winter storm that has us here at ECT alarmed. The possibility of a crippling ice storm is a real threat across NE Oklahoma Thursday into Friday. This chart is the Sperry-Piltz ice index forecast from the NWS Tulsa and is a forecast of the possible ice storm impacts. This could rival the ice storm of 2007 but before you mets climb all over me, just listen. The ice forecast might not be the 2.0-2.5" of ice that we recieved in 2007 but .75-1.00" of ice combined with post-frontal winds of 15-25 M.P.H. will provide the same results. Catastrophic damage is possible.

Props to Lanny Dean and David Moran for calling this ice storm several days ago!!

Further to the northwest of the ice storm, very heavy and possibly record-breaking snow is possible. I just looked at the 06z NAM and it shows a 24" swath in central to north-central Oklahoma with 12" plus likely into the Tulsa area!! Not sure if 24" will verify, but the possibility is note worthy. Now combine the heavy snow with 15-25 M.P.H. winds and you will have white-out conditions.

Area emergency management agencies are already on alert and have industrial generators pre-placed along with truckloads of water to equip shelters that likely will be needed during and after this storm.

Please check on your neighbors and the elderly regularly.

Please listen to local media and keep track of our blog for further updates.

Lanny and I will likely be out during the storm streaming on ChaserTV so you don't have to get out in it.

PLEASE BE READY FOR THIS STORM!!

Another Blizzard Coming?

2010-01-25T00:32:00.003-06:00

Okay folks, here it is.....looking at the latest model runs it looks as though we might see another major winter storm later this week in central and western Oklahoma. Posted above is the "possible" snow fall total amounts as well as the upper level features for the same time frame from the GFS/GFSx weather model. Clearly they show a very strong system to impact the southern plains mid to late week. It is obviously to early to tell the exact track of the system but it needs to be watched!!!

We will update this possible major winter weather situation later today and as we get closer to the event.

-Lanny

Severe Weather Potential 1/23/09

2010-01-22T20:51:00.006-06:00

Good evening everyone! An interesting forecast is shaping up for tomorrow. An upper level system is approaching the central part of the country. While it does not appear to be very organized, this will be one of the main ingredients in our severe weather event for tomorrow. Below is the 500 mb analysis from 00Z tonight.

I want to focus on two main aspects of this setup, the thermodynamics and the dynamics of the system. Below is the 00Z sounding from tonight at Norman. The lapse rates are around 6 degrees Celsius per kilometer. This is approaching instability criteria. With moisture surging north overnight, I expect CAPE to begin to rise overnight. The models typically do not do a good job with forecasting CAPE, so I will not include a map of CAPE in this forecast.

Now let’s look at the dynamics. We have plenty of vorticity in the region right now. Vorticity, for those who do not know, is basically the measure of spin in a fluid. Vorticity is the first ingredient that you need for tornado development. The next thing you need is convergence aloft. Think of an ice skater. When they bring their arms in, they spin at a faster rate. It is the same idea here; the convergence acts on the vorticity and stretches it. This is what forms the tornado. As of tonight, we have between 80 and 90 knots of shear. I believe this is plenty of shear for tornado development. This, combined with the convergence aloft, will enhance the tornado potential. Right now, it appears to me that the highest chance for tornadoes will be in southeast Oklahoma. That said, we’re not going to have a major tornado outbreak, but a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Stay tuned to TV, radio, and other media for more up to date information. Have a great night!

David Moran

Meteorologist

Extreme Chase Tours

Video uploaded to Youtube!

2010-01-22T10:20:00.005-06:00

Good morning folks! I just finished uploading a couple of videos to our Youtube account. One was of the dense fog this morning and the other was from the storms last Wednesday evening. The dense fog formed as our temps dropped to the saturation level and winds stayed calm after Wednesday's storm system exited the area. Be sure to swing by & check it out here.

Otherwise, still eyeing potential for a Saturday chase. Stay tuned!

Jeff

Severe Weather Potential 1/22/09

2010-01-21T15:06:00.001-06:00

Good Afternoon, Everyone! I am Extreme Chase Tours meteorologist David Moran with your severe weather forecast for tomorrow and Saturday. An upper level system off the west coast will make its way into the region tomorrow night and Saturday. This will be the focal point for the development of severe weather across the state. Here is an upper level 500 mb chart from this morning.

Once this system gets over land, we’ll be able to get a better look at what’s going on, but this will be the weather maker for the weekend.

The leading edge of the system will be in our area by tomorrow night. We’re going to have a chance of rain tomorrow night, but it doesn’t appear to be significant. By Saturday morning, the dewpoints in southeast Oklahoma are going to be in the lower 50s, so there will be some moisture advection. The one thing that I do not agree with, however, is the GFS seems to be very eager to drop the dewpoints rapidly. While they may decrease throughout the day, I don’t expect them to drop as fast as the models are suggesting. I am leaving out the Lifted Indices for right now because I do not think that they’re very informational this go around. It looks to me that this will mainly be a morning event. Because of the boundary layer processes that occur in the early morning, I don’t think LI’s are going to be very meaningful.

So, what can we expect heading into Saturday? I think the main threats on Saturday will be heavy rain, strong winds, and hail. With helicity values around 350 m^2/s^2, I think there is sufficient shear for the potential for tornadoes. I believe that there will be enough shear (67 knots from 0-6 km) and low level convergence to warrant a chance for tornadoes. This situation is still evolving so we’ll keep an eye on it.

Lighning pic

2010-01-20T22:59:00.000-06:00

Well, it's all I got tonight. Enjoy!
Jeff

DANGEROUS NIGHT IN TX/LA!!

2010-01-20T18:58:00.004-06:00

Level 2 Reflectivity tornadic Supercell Jackson Perish LA

SRV of the tornadic supercell in Jackson Perish LA 7:18pm CDT

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING A TORNADO TAKE COVER NOW!

As Jeff and I as well as the entire Extreme Chase Tours team has been telling everyone this evening, there is dangerous situation ongoing right now in eastern TX and LA. Many supercells have been ongoing and there have been tornadoes reported as well as damage in LA. We will continue to post updates as they become availble but as Jeff asked, please, please pay attention to your local media outlets for the latest information if you live in these areas!

Lanny

Here is a radar shot from SW of Tyler, Tx as of 6:54PM. Please please please if you live in north Texas and Louisiana stay tuned to local media and leave your NOAA weather radio on tonight!!

TORNADO ON THE GROUND!

2010-01-20T17:56:00.003-06:00

TORNADO ON THE GROUND IN SABIN PARISH LA.

Folks in this area need to keep an eye on the weather that is unfolding tonight. The radar grab above shows what is called a classic Hook Echo. You can even see the "donughnut hole"

This hole is caused when the mesocyclone wraps rain and hail back around itself. Often times this can and does obscure the tornado and can cause what we call a rain wrapped tornado.

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION, PEOPLE NEED TO STAY TUNED TO LOCAL TV, RADIO AND MEDIA! GO OVER YOUR SAFETY PLANS. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM GET BELOW GROUND NOW IF YOU CAN. IF YOU DO NOT HAVE A BASEMENT GET TO THE LOWEST LEVEL MOST CENTER PART OF YOUR HOUSE, A CLOSET OR BATHROOM AND COVER YOURSELF WITH BLANKETS AND PILLOWS.

TAKE COVER NOW. IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO IT MAY BE TO LATE!

Lanny

Dangerous early storm system!

2010-01-20T16:36:00.004-06:00

Looks like a long night for the residents of Texas, SE Oklahoma, and Louisiana. Please review severe weather safety plans now so you will be ready!! Dangerous storms already firing down there with several tornado warnings. The first two tornado watches of 2010 have been posted for these areas. Stay tuned!

Jeff

Severe Weather Potential 1/20/09

2010-01-20T15:01:00.006-06:00

Thunderstorms will be possible tonight across southeast and south central Oklahoma tonight. As we go through the evening hours, CAPE values will approach 1500-2000 J/kg and Lifted Indices will range from -2 to -4. At this point, tornadoes do not appear likely. However, heavy rain and small hail will be the main threats.

CAPE at 9pm

Dewpoints and Lifted Indices at 9pm tonight

A stronger storm system will make its way into the state for Friday and Saturday. This storm will have the potential to produce tornadoes. It’s still a bit too early to spell out details, but further updates will be provided as more information becomes available.

David Moran

Meteorologist

Extreme Chase Tours

Severe Weather Possible Next Week?

2010-01-15T08:44:00.004-06:00

Okay folks, looking at the new model runs this morning it appears that we could see some severe weather next week. Right now it looks like a couple of good negative tilt systems should start affecting our weather across Texas and Arkansas possibly starting later next week, and then another piece of energy coming in sometime next weekend. Below I have posted a few graphics from the the GFS weather model for various time frames starting mid next week and then up to 216 hours out.
Of course we are talking 8-9 days out so things can certainly change but these systems do need to be watched. If you have not gone over your severe weather safety plans please do so now!

Lanny

Welcome!

2010-01-13T14:14:00.001-06:00

Hey everyone, Jeff here. I just wanted to say welcome to the brand new Extreme Chase Tours Blog! I am so excited to be on board with ECT. We are working hard to make your tour experience that best on the planet! Feel free to take a tour of the website: http://www.extremechasetours.com and let us know what you think! There are also links to our personal blogs and websites as well as other well known chaser sites. Tours are booking faster than ever this year, so hurry up and book your ultimate vacation experience today!!
God bless,
Jeff